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When the United States Dollar-Philippine Peso Exchange rate was still P44+ to a dollar, I told my dad to dump all his dollars, exchange it for peso and put it in mutual funds.
I am not certain if my dad listened to my advice, However the exchange rate is now about P 40.00 to a dollar. Some experts give the fearless forecast of 37 to 1 by as early as the 1st quarter of 2008. More conservative experts peg it at P 39 to a dollar by 2008 and most would agree that it would stay in the P 30 +++ level by 2009. Some give a higher than P 35 prediction while others give a lower than P 35.00 prediction. Most likely, the Philippine Peso will keep on getting stronger in the coming months because of the these reasons: 1.) The law of supply and demand - When demand is high prices goes up and when demand is low prices go down. The more supply of dollars there is, the cheaper it will be. The less demand of dollar there is, the price for getting dollars goes down also. And why is the supply of U.S dollars rising in our country? Consider this: a.) Increase in remittances sent by Overseas Foreign workers (OFW) -About eight million Filipinos, out of a population of more than 80 million, have left the country to work in other coutnries. There is an estimated 11 million Filipinos worldwide. As the number of Filipinos leaving the country for work increases, so does their remittances. This futher aids in making the Philippine Peso stronger. b.) Inflow of Foreign capital - The Philippines is ripe for investment. The Bangko Central has reported that from January-September 2007, "foreign direct investments (FDI) net inflows aggregated US$1.9 billion, higher by 22.3 percent compared to the US$1.6 billion recorded in the same period a year ago." Investors are now looking at the Philippines as a good place to invest because of several factors, among which are, effective Fiscal reforms implemented by the government, strong economic fundamentals, our growing business process outsourcing potential and liberalization of mining laws. A substantial portion of foreign investments went to mining, real estate and manufacturing. The effect of this is bullish stock market, low inflation rate, high GDP etc. These factors continue to produce a good business environment for investors as this trend continues more investors are expected to come in. With this "hot money" continuing to pour into our country, the supply of dollar continues to rise. c.) More Tourist, More money - Tourists spend a lot of money while they are in the country. According to the Department of Tourism, Tourist arrival increased 8.6 percent from last year. This means that there 2.5 million more tourists. With the influx of more tourists, the supply of U.S dollars is further increased in the country. d.) Export earnings growth - Despite the fact that exporters are having a hard time due to a stronger Philippine Peso, the export sector has reported growth last year due to the increase of Business Process Outsourcing investment in the country. It cannot be denied that the Philippines is still to one of the best place to invest when it comes to business process outsourcing. e.) Political stability - People are tired of political bickering, political mudslinging and engaging in activities that call for the resignation of the president. It cannot be denied that the existing administration has maintained its grip and influence creating a somewhat stable political environment. 2.) A weaker U.S dollar - While it is true that our strong economic fundamentals helped push the Peso upwards, it also cannot be denied that the Peso got a little help from the weakness of the U.S dollar. The economic problems of the U.S due to the sub prime mortgage crises has been causing the U.S dollar to futher weaken. This factor helped push the Peso upward. The year 2007 closed with the Peso being named as the best performing currency in Asia. It is said to have gained about 18 % against the U.S dollar.This trend is more likely to continue and a stronger peso is very much more likely in the month or even years to come.
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